A Security Crackdown in Argentina?

No, just hopeless reporting in the FT

The Financial Times reports on a security crackdown in Argentina.

So far though we have no plans, just a tweet

The tldr is:  that the federal security forces will immediately break up any protest that blocks a street wholly or partially,  those organising them, their accomplices and instigators  will be identified,  any vehicles used will be seized if not in pristine condition, that the organisers will be held liable for any environmental damage, that parents who take their kids with them will be punished, the cost of the security forces activities to break up these demonstrations will be paid by the individuals or organising them, and any foreigners involved will have their details  passed to the immigration authorities. 

This is an expression of Minister Bullrich’s dreams. At most it will lead to a change of tone in the policing of some protests. 

1.

Argentina is a federal state. The primary responsibility for internal security lies with the governors of the 23 provinces and the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires. Minister Bullrich has no authority over them. Sometimes they welcome federal assistance with security matters, sometimes they don’t.

Furthermore, Argentina is a huge country, the federal security forces can’t be everywhere and the state lacks the resources to quickly move them long distances in big numbers.

2.

The biggest province by far is Buenos Aires, it surrounds the autonomous city of the same name,  and it has a huge police force. Its governor is Axel  Kiciloff, a peronista of the kirchnerista persuasion  recently reelected with a handsome majority. He’s not going to lift a finger to assist Minister Bullrich with her “plans”.

3.

If the contents of the tweet are ever turned into orders the federal security force commanders on the scene of such demonstrations won’t like having their operational discretion limited. And if they order their lads to wade into peaceful demonstrations they’ll be aware of the risk of someone getting killed and that they, not Minister Bullrich, will end up in front of a judge. Furthermore, doing everything demanded in Minister Bullrich’s tweet would place a huge administrative burden on the security force concerned to police just one demonstration with a few dozen protestors.

4.

Speaking of judges, all the police activities mentioned in the tweet will eventually have to be signed off by one. In most cases, this won’t happen. And the chances of criminal convictions from any of this are slim. The right to protest is protected by the Constitution and Minister Bullrich doesn’t control the judiciary. No/few convictions = no deterrent.

5.

We’ve been here before. Minister Bullrich was previously Security Minister from 2015 to 2019. Back then she also swore to end demonstrations that blocked streets. It didn’t happen then, it won’t happen now.

6.

It’s not March 1976, the military is out of the game, and there isn’t going to be a revival of authoritarianism in Argentina.  People voted for Milei because they were sick to death of robber baron Kirchnerista governments not because they wanted the streets swept by shotgun blasts from the federal police. 

7.

Don’t believe everything you read in the Financial Times.