Northern Ireland Is Not Gaza
Why the Northern Ireland peace deal has nothing to teach us about the Israel-Palestine conflict and insisting otherwise is misleading and harmful.
Irish politicians and commentators have long dined out on the notion that the Good Friday Agreement offers a handy template for solving the Israel-Palestine conflict. The UK’s Ambassador to Israel has now gotten in on the act.
I have worked in and around conflicts for thirty years, and grew up in Northern Ireland during the height of the terrorist campaigns. One of the main lessons I take from that experience is that at some point the fighting has to stop and the diplomacy begin. That point is now.
No doubt the Ambassador means well but I’m afraid this won’t do.
Note “terrorist campaigns”. Though plenty of terrorism occurred during it the conflict was not between two warring terrorist groups but rather between, on one side, the British state and, on the other, the Provisional Republican movement. The latter wanted to take Northern Ireland out of the United Kingdom and the former wanted to keep it there.
What does the Good Friday Agreement say about this?
Northern Ireland remains an integral part of the United Kingdom, and the Provisional IRA and Sinn Féin accept this reality. They abandoned violence and integrated into the Northern Irish government. After decades of armed struggle aimed at expelling the British, the Provos, in a remarkable shift, have become de facto stewards of British sovereignty in the region. Additionally, the agreement led the Republic of Ireland to relinquish its constitutional claim to Northern Ireland’s six counties.
The agreement does allow for Northern Ireland’s constitutional status to change if a majority of its population desires it but the likelihood of that desire ever being tested is slim as the agreement leaves it up to the British minister responsible for Northern Ireland to decide whether or not to hold a referendum on the question.
In effect, the Good Friday Agreement delivered the opposite of what the Provisional IRA had long fought for. It compelled both Northern Irish Republicans and the Republic of Ireland to formally accept the division of Ireland. In return, Northern Ireland’s Republicans secured human rights protections and a restructured autonomous parliament, an arrangement that had been available for decades. The sole tangible concession from Britain was the early release of Provisional IRA prisoners convicted of terrorism and related offenses.
In order to grasp just how far this is from Israel-Palestine, readers should imagine a future in which female Hamas commanders are the political leaders of the Judea and Samaria and Gaza Autonomous Regions of Israel. They condemn political violence in all its forms, speak the language of human rights and equality, and claim that their new role is simply a continuation of the struggle for Palestinian national rights by other means. The bulk of their followers believe this and vote for them.
Just how ridiculous this scenario sounds illustrates the chasm separating Hamas from the Provisional Republican movement in terms of political culture, methods, and aims.
Regular readers of this Substack will be aware of the depths of my hatred for the Provisional Republican movement and all its works but it is and always has been very different from Hamas.
It never called for the extermination or forced removal of the Protestant majority, nor did it claim that London was Ireland’s rightful capital. It was not driven by an ideology of religious or racial supremacy.
More broadly, the Provisional IRA did not see itself as part of a larger religious war against Protestants in Northern Ireland. Unlike Hamas, it never had the backing of a powerful state like Iran or Qatar to provide steady financial and military aid. There was no worldwide network of militant Catholic fundamentalists willing to commit acts of terrorism in support of their cause. Nor did it enjoy support among progressive circles in Western democracies. The only significant external support it received was occasional weapons shipments from Libya’s dictator, Muammar Qaddafi, and donations from sympathetic Irish Americans in the pubs of Boston and New York.
Furthermore, modern Irish nationalism in all its forms is largely a Protestant invention. Its roots go back to Wolfe Tone and the Society of United Irishmen. They looked towards an Irish identity which included all religious expressions in the country and though they betrayed it with horrendous acts of sectarian violence that was also the stated aim of the Provisional Republican movement.
The Provisional IRA never fostered a cult of martyrdom or resistance as ends in themselves. Suicide bombings were entirely alien to it in practice and principle. Even the 1981 hunger strikes in which seven Provo prisoners died were not acts of suicidal fanaticism but rather a calculated battle of wills with the British government. Had the British government conceded to their demands, they would have ended their strikes immediately.
The oversimplified, feel-good narrative of the Good Friday agreement offering a model for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict does more harm than good.
It tempts Israeli progressives to believe that they are faced with an enemy comparable to the Provisional IRA and treats Hamas as a bunch of colourful, hot headed natives incapable of meaning what they say, indeed of meaning the very opposite of what they say.
So, please, no more hawking the Good Friday Agreement as a one-size-fits-all solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Instead, let’s see a bit more humility from British and Irish politicians, diplomats, and so-called “peace activists”, those guys don’t hold the secret formula for resolving every conflict.
Let’s hope for reality based negotiations focused on reducing harm and, one day, a settlement reached by the parties themselves.