Pedro Under Pressure

Spain's Political Crisis Rolls On

As far as the public record goes, there is no indication that Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s Prime Minister, is personally corrupt. Judges have spent the past seven years investigating, with evident energy and persistence, and have yet to find anything that touches him directly. But they are still looking and yearn to find the basis for an investigation into him that would force his resignation.

Even though Sánchez remains personally untouched, his political judgment is now under serious question. His decision to entrust control of the PSOE first to José Luis Ábalos and later to Santos Cerdán looks increasingly reckless. In Ábalos’s case, the mistake is particularly difficult to defend. He was widely seen, even within party circles, as undisciplined and unpredictable. His chaotic personal life was an open secret. Appointing him to such a central position was bound to create problems, and now it has.

The scandal centers on Ábalos’s former assistant, Koldo García, whose past and present seem to blur into each other in unsettling ways. García once worked as a bouncer in brothels and served as a licensed bodyguard during the years of lead in the Basque Country. He was even decorated by the Guardia Civil for his role in the fight against ETA. When Ábalos became Minister of Transport, García followed him to Madrid and operated at the heart of political power, far beyond what might be expected for someone of his background.

Now, García’s own recordings of conversations with Santos Cerdán have brought the party leadership into crisis. These recordings led directly to the latter’s resignation, and their mere existence has unsettled the entire PSOE. Party officials are nervously wondering what other conversations García may have captured during his years of access and proximity.

The investigation into Cerdán and Ábalos is being carried out by the Guardia Civil’s elite detective unit, the UCO. But here the lines start to blur. The UCO was led by Colonel Manuel Sánchez Corbí until he retired four years ago. He now heads international security for Acciona, a major construction and infrastructure firm that has been named in the investigation as one of the companies that allegedly paid bribes in exchange for public contracts. That detail, noted almost in passing in recent reports, raises obvious questions. It is hard to ignore the curious convergence of careers and connections, especially given the Guardia Civil’s longstanding ties to García and its central role in the current inquiry.

The political consequences have been swift. The president of the Spanish Episcopal Conference has called for early elections, a sure sign of blood in the water. Commentators and politicians on the left have responded with visible distress. Many appear more concerned with maintaining the appearance of moral uprightness than with the practical task of governing and preventing the return of the far-right Vox party to a position of influence. The climate on the left is edging toward panic, as if resignation were the only acceptable form of integrity.

But it is worth recalling that Spanish governments do not usually fall because of corruption scandals alone. Mariano Rajoy’s administration, for instance, endured years of corruption revelations without collapsing. It was brought down not by court cases, but by a shift in parliamentary arithmetic. The Catalan nationalists saw an opportunity for revenge after Rajoy suspended their autonomy in 2017. The Basques, not wishing to appear as the last group holding up a discredited administration, joined them. That combination, not the corruption itself, ended his tenure.

Today, the future of Sánchez and his government remains uncertain. A new poll shows the conservative People’s Party beginning to pull ahead of the PSOE. Only one poll, but still. Despite the erosion of public confidence, it is not clear how a stable alternative government might be formed. The parliamentary numbers do not currently point to an obvious majority that could bring the PP’s Alberto Núñez Feijóo and his neofascist friends in Vox to power.

Sánchez is facing one of the most difficult moments of his premiership. There appears to be no easy move that would restore public trust in his government and confidence in his party. Until he decides his next move Spain is in a state of political suspended animation with no obvious exit and new revelations still possibly on the horizon.