The counting is not quite over but we can say a couple of things for sure.
1.
This is a historic reverse for Catalan nationalism. Junts, ERC and CUP together are miles short of a majority (68). Even with the support of the fascist Allianza party they are still short. If I am not mistaken this is the first time this has happened since the return of of democracy.
2.
This is a total vindication of Sánchez’s policy of killing the independence with kindness, first the pardon and now the amnesty.
3.
The PSC, ERC and Comuns Sumar together have 68 seats, an overall majority of 1. If this holds then it might be able to form a left coalition. The question then will be whether the terminally timorous ERC will have the courage to join it. If it’s not possible to form a left coalition then we do all this again in the autumn.
4.
There’s going to be no triumphant return for Puigdemont. That said, he’s secured his real-world ambition and crushed ERC.
5.
If no government can be formed then an autumn election will make it very hard to pass a national budget.
6.
Oh and Ciudadanos has disappeared. In 2017 it got 1.1 million votes. It was the rightist twin of Podemos, which now barely exists at the national level with its 4 deputies forming part of the opposition.
7.
The first rule of Spanish politics holds: Pedro Sánchez always wins.