The Rain in Spain

Your questions answered about the Valencia flood disaster.

1.

Why did so many people die?

There are many reasons going back decades. One is a development model based on cementing over every square centimeter of land to build blocks of flats, including land known to be prone to flooding. Flood plains gonna flood. The immediate reason, however, is that Carlos Mazón of the PP, the region’s President, not only didn’t send out a warning till it was too late,  but two hours earlier he tweeted that the storm had moved on and there was nothing to worry about.

2.

Why?

Because he’s as thick as pig shit and because he didn’t want tourists to be put off from coming to the city for the long weekend, and because in his party and further to the right it’s fashionable to sneer at the national weather service. And also perhaps a feeling that a shower of rain shouldn’t bother anyone, enough already of woke nonsense.

3.

Has the response to the tragedy been up to scratch?

That’s debatable. The first thing to bear in mind is that the regional government has the legal responsibility for disaster relief and, as I mentioned before, we’re not talking about world-class minds there.

So why hasn’t the national government declared an emergency and taken over the job?

The initial decision not to do so was taken last Tuesday night by a cabinet committee led by Vice PM María Jesús Montero as Sánchez was in the air on the way back from India. It’s not clear what level of communication he had with the committee and it may not have wanted to take such a grave decision on its own. It may also have been influenced by the fact that the state of emergency declared during the Covid pandemic was subsequently declared, in part, illegal by the Constitutional Court. A further factor would have been fear of cries of “Dictatorship!” if a PSOE-led national government had suspended one of the functions of a PP-led regional one.

There may have been baser political calculations at work too; the national government didn’t and doesn’t want to become the political owner of the disaster, it knows that from the moment a national emergency is declared the responsibility for every death will be laid at its door by the opposition and most of media.

After the hesitations of the initial hours Interior Minister Grande-Marlaska joined the regional crisis committee. He’s a highly experienced administrator and he controls the National Police and Guardia Civil, two huge security forces with specialist search and rescue elements. The UME, the army’s specialist disaster response branch, was also quickly on the scene. As of today there are 17000 national police, guardias civiles and soldiers deployed in the response to the disaster.

If you can read Spanish, and even if you can’t, take a look at Transport Minister Óscar Puente’s twitter. Extraordinary effort and resources are being put into restoring Valencia’s local and national transport links.

Puente is having a very good crisis. He’s an acidly effective orator, a hard worker and really hates the PP. He might be a good bet to replace Sánchez at the top of the party, in due course.

4.

But people are saying that when there was a flooding disaster in Valencia in 1957 help came much more quickly and efficiently.

People say a lot of dumb shit, for instance that things were better under Franco than they are today. In 1957 Spain was a dirt-poor country, many of its people had survived a horrendous Civil War and their expectations of a reasonable standard of living and the state’s role in protecting it were entirely different from the situation today. Additionally, in 1957 you acted grateful for whatever you were given, and if you didn’t you faced grim consequences.

5.

Ah, that reminds me of what happened on Sunday, Sánchez is such a coward, the King was so brave.

That’s certainly the view put out by opposition parties and three-quarters of the media. Another way of looking at it is that it was a very stupid idea for the King and Sánchez to show up at one of the worst hit areas and expect to be treated civilly. The rioters (and it was a riot) were a mix of pissed-off locals and neofascist elements.

It’s notable that physical assaults on the democratically elected head of the government and on the head of state and his wife have yet to produce a single arrest. Spain’s police and judiciary have a lamentable history of viewing violence from the far right as being the work of misguided patriots.  Nor has a condemnation of the violence been forthcoming from the opposition.

6.

But some people hate Sánchez, don’t they?

They sure do. That’s not because of any policy or series of decisions, it's that even mildly left leaders like him are supposed to act all humble and grateful to be allowed to hold power for a few years before handing it back to its rightful owners. He doesn't fit that stereotype. He's relaxed in his own skin and believes that he's the best person to lead the PSOE and run the country, ideas that would be considered laudable in a rightist leader. And he's tall, handsome, and has frustrated the wishes of Madrid media and business elite again and again. So, of course, he’s going to be hated.

7.

So, what now?

I don’t know. The disaster is likely to have significant political consequences but it’s impossible to say at this point what they’ll be.  My guess is that they are unlikely to be to the benefit of the national government. If Mazón and his crew of real estate speculators are returned to power by the people of Valencia at the next regional election I would not be surprised. 

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